MARKET NEWS · WEEK OF 28 OCTOBER 2026

Inflation lifts again ahead of next week's RBA decision.

Each week we pull together the numbers that matter for Australian borrowers, then look closer to home at Brisbane, the Gold Coast and South East Queensland.

Week of 28 October 2026 · General information only

AUSTRALIA-WIDE SNAPSHOT

Australia-wide snapshot

At a glance

RBA cash rate

4.60%up 0.25 pts, effective 30 Sep 2026Source: RBA

Headline inflation (CPI)

4.3%in the 12 months to Sep 2026 (up from 4.0%)Source: ABS

Trimmed mean inflation

3.6%annual · 1.0% for the Sep quarterSource: ABS

National home values

−1.1%in Sep · 5.2% below the March peakSource: Cotality

Next RBA decision

Tue 3 Nov 20261:30pm Brisbane time (2:30pm AEDT)Source: RBA

Cash rate.

The RBA cash rate target is 4.60% after a 0.25 percentage point rise that took effect on 30 September, the fourth increase this year (RBA). The Monetary Policy Board meets on 2–3 November, with its decision due on the afternoon of Tuesday 3 November (RBA meeting schedule).

Inflation.

ABS figures released today show the Consumer Price Index rose 4.3% in the 12 months to September, up from 4.0% in August. Trimmed mean inflation, the underlying measure the RBA watches closely, was 3.6%, up from a revised 3.5%. Over the September quarter, prices rose 1.3%, and the quarterly trimmed mean (on the ABS's pre-October 2025 basis) was 1.0%. Housing (up 5.2%) and transport (up 8.7%, driven by fuel) were the biggest contributors (ABS media release; ABS CPI, September 2026).

What economists were saying.

Before today's release, the big four banks were split: ANZ and Westpac expected another 0.25 point rise in November, while CBA and NAB expected a hold, though both flagged a rise as a risk. The quarterly trimmed mean of 1.0% matched the forecasts of CBA, NAB and ANZ (Westpac had 0.9%) and was above the RBA's August forecast of 0.8% (Aussie, 28 Oct 2026). These are third-party forecasts, not certainties. The RBA will make its own decision, and lenders set their own rates whatever the RBA does.

Lender rates.

All four major banks passed on September's rise in full to variable home loans from 9 October (Aussie). Most other lenders followed, though timing varied from lender to lender (Ratesniffers, as at 4 Oct 2026).

Home values.

Cotality's index fell 1.1% nationally in September, the sixth monthly fall in a row, leaving values 5.2% below the March peak. Every capital except Darwin (up 0.4%) fell over the month: Brisbane down 1.5%, Sydney down 1.4%, Adelaide down 1.3%, Perth down 1.2%, Canberra down 1.1%, Melbourne down 0.7% and Hobart down 0.5%. The national rental vacancy rate rose to 2.0%, its highest since January 2025 (Cotality; Cotality HVI, October 2026).

CLOSER TO HOME

Closer to home: Brisbane, the Gold Coast and South East Queensland

At a glance

Brisbane home values

−1.5%in Sep (sharpest fall of any capital) · +5.9% over the yearSource: Cotality

Brisbane median dwelling value

$1,048,880Source: Cotality

Regional Queensland values

−0.9%in Sep · +6.3% over the yearSource: Cotality

Brisbane auction clearance rate

25.2%preliminary, week to 25 Oct (lowest of the capitals)Source: Cotality

Brisbane rental vacancy

2.1%Source: Cotality

Brisbane inflation (CPI)

4.4%in the 12 months to SepSource: ABS

Brisbane had the sharpest monthly fall of any capital in September, although values are still up 5.9% over the year, with a median dwelling value of $1,048,880. Regional Queensland, which includes the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, fell 0.9% over the month and is up 6.3% over the year (Cotality HVI, October 2026).

Auctions remain tough going. Brisbane's preliminary clearance rate was 25.2% across 200 auctions in the week to 25 October, the lowest of any capital (Cotality, 26 Oct 2026). That followed a final result of 21.8% in the week to 11 October, compared with 66.1% a year earlier (Cotality, 15 Oct 2026). Rentals are still relatively tight, with Brisbane's vacancy rate at 2.1%. Prices in Brisbane rose 4.4% over the year to September, a little above the national 4.3% (ABS).

GENERAL INFORMATION

What this could mean for borrowers

This is general information only. Everyone's situation is different.

First home buyers:

softer prices and quieter auctions may give buyers more room to negotiate, but higher rates reduce borrowing capacity. Government schemes and concessions have price caps and eligibility rules, so it can help to check which, if any, apply in your price range.

Refinancers:

lenders don't all move their rates at the same time or by the same amount. If your rate changed in October, it may be worth checking how it compares.

Investors:

values have eased while rental vacancy remains low, but repayments are higher. Reviewing cash flow and loan structure regularly can help.

Variable-rate borrowers:

the next RBA decision is on 3 November. Keeping some buffer in your budget can help while the outlook is uncertain.

Want to talk through what this means for your situation?Book a 15-minute callor call the office on 07 5594 8270.

WEEKLY UPDATE

Sign up for weekly updates

Get Market News in your inbox each week: the key numbers for Australian borrowers, plus what's happening in South East Queensland.

By signing up, you agree to receive our weekly Market News email from Truth Financial. You can unsubscribe at any time. See our Privacy Policy.

Important information

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (CPI, September 2026, released 28 Oct 2026); Reserve Bank of Australia (cash rate target and meeting schedule); Cotality (Home Value Index, October 2026; auction results to 25 Oct 2026); Aussie (economist forecasts, 28 Oct 2026); Ratesniffers (lender rate changes, as at 4 Oct 2026); firsthomebuyers.gov.au; qld.gov.au. Figures are correct as at 28 October 2026 and may change.

Important information: This page is general information only. It doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn't credit advice, financial product advice or tax advice. Before acting on it, consider whether it's appropriate for you and seek advice about your own circumstances. Forecasts and commentary from third parties are their views, are not guaranteed and may not be accurate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Interest rates, lender policies and government schemes change, and eligibility criteria, terms and conditions apply. Your full financial situation and requirements need to be considered prior to any offer and acceptance of a loan product.

Truth Financial Pty Ltd (ABN 82 661 568 903) is an authorised Credit Representative of Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd (ABN 51 143 651 496), Australian Credit Licence 389328. Truth Financial is a member of the MFAA.